Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or legal gazette.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or legal gazette. The rules establish specific exclusions for departure, detailing that mere announcements, scheduled election departures, temporary transfers of power such as 25th Amendment invocations, or serving in a caretaker or interim capacity do not qualify until a leader permanently leaves office. If no listed leader experiences a permanent departure by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market resolves to a designated none-before-2027 outcome. Participants should note that only an executed, permanent removal triggers resolution, meaning premature calls based on announcements or provisional suspensions will not qualify.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump will be the first among a listed group of world leaders to permanently leave office before 2027. It requires actual permanent departure rather than mere announcements, scheduled departures, or temporary power transfers.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes for Donald Trump if he is the first listed leader to permanently cease occupying his office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resignation announcements, election results, temporary removals like impeachment suspensions or 25th Amendment invocations, and caretaker or interim roles do not count as leaving office. The market resolves to a different listed individual if that person is the first to permanently leave office. The market resolves to None before 2027 if no listed leader permanently leaves office before the deadline. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·