Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official registry or government notice.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official registry or government notice. The rules clearly define what constitutes leaving office, explicitly excluding announcements, election results prior to handover, temporary suspensions or provisional transfers of power, and caretaker roles. However, because this market is evaluated against a broader set of listed leaders, participants should note that any other listed leader permanently leaving office first will cause this market to resolve negatively. If no leader permanently vacates their post by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the fallback option.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladimir Putin is the first among the listed leaders to permanently leave office before 2027. It uniquely requires a permanent departure, excluding temporary suspensions, announced exits, or interim and caretaker roles.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes for Vladimir Putin if he is the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying his office before the deadline. Mere announcements of departure or election outcomes do not count, nor do temporary suspensions, provisional transfers of power, or remaining in a caretaker or interim role. The market resolves No if another listed individual is the first to permanently leave office. It resolves to 'None before 2027' if no listed leader permanently leaves office by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·