Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes an exit from office, explicitly excluding announcements, scheduled future departures, temporary suspensions like impeachment proceedings, and caretaker or interim arrangements.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes an exit from office, explicitly excluding announcements, scheduled future departures, temporary suspensions like impeachment proceedings, and caretaker or interim arrangements. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated official registry, giving the decider latitude to determine when a departure becomes permanent. Participants should note the precise cutoff on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, as well as the clause resolving to none if no leader departs permanently before that deadline.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the first among a listed set of leaders to permanently leave office before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva if he is the first listed leader to permanently cease occupying his office before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves No if another listed leader permanently leaves office first. Announcements of resignations, scheduled departures, temporary removals such as impeachment suspensions, and caretaker or interim tenures do not qualify as ceasing to occupy office. The market resolves to None before 2027 if no listed leader permanently leaves office by the deadline. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·