Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes leaving office, specifically excluding announced resignations, election loss announcements, temporary suspensions, and periods served in caretaker or interim capacities until a formal, permanent departure occurs.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes leaving office, specifically excluding announced resignations, election loss announcements, temporary suspensions, and periods served in caretaker or interim capacities until a formal, permanent departure occurs. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government gazette or registry, leaving the determination of consensus to the decider. Participants should note that formal transitions can take weeks after an election or resignation announcement, which may delay resolution or prevent an individual from qualifying before the strict deadline of December 31, 2026.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sanae Takaichi is the next leader among a specified list to permanently leave office before 2027. Resolution requires an actual, permanent cessation of occupying the office rather than an announcement, scheduled departure, interim role, or temporary transfer of power.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes for Sanae Takaichi if she is the first individual on the list to permanently cease occupying her listed office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements of resignation or removal, scheduled departures from election outcomes, temporary removals (such as impeachment suspensions or provisional transfers of power), and continuing in a caretaker or interim role do not qualify. The market resolves No for her if another listed leader is the first to permanently leave office. If no listed individual permanently leaves office by the deadline, the market resolves to 'None before 2027'. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·