Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on whether Mahmoud Abbas is the first among a designated set of leaders to permanently leave office before the end of 2026.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on whether Mahmoud Abbas is the first among a designated set of leaders to permanently leave office before the end of 2026. The rules explicitly exclude mere announcements of departure, scheduled post-election departures, temporary impeachment suspensions, and caretaker or interim periods, meaning an official must fully vacate power to qualify. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated official gazette or institutional source, giving the resolver discretion to weigh news coverage regarding the precise nature and permanence of an exit.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mahmoud Abbas is the first among the listed leaders to permanently leave office before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mahmoud Abbas is the first of the listed individuals to permanently cease occupying his office before the deadline. An announcement of resignation or removal, a scheduled departure, temporary removals, impeachment suspensions, or serving in a caretaker or interim role do not count as leaving office. The market resolves No if another listed leader permanently leaves office first. The market resolves to 'None before 2027' if no listed leader permanently vacates their office by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·