Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the first listed leader to permanently leave office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the first listed leader to permanently leave office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The rules clearly distinguish between scheduled or announced departures and actual, permanent exits, explicitly excluding temporary suspensions, provisional transfers of power, and continued service in an interim or caretaker capacity. If no listed leader permanently exits before the deadline, the market defaults to a specified None outcome. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named official register, which requires some interpretation of media reports to verify the exact moment an official permanently leaves office, but the clear definitional boundaries minimize ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Claudia Sheinbaum is the first among a set of listed leaders to permanently leave office before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes for Claudia Sheinbaum if she is the first listed leader to permanently cease occupying her office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements of resignation or removal, scheduled election departures, temporary removals such as impeachment suspensions, and continuing in a caretaker or interim role do not count as leaving office. The market resolves No if another listed leader leaves office first. It resolves to None before 2027 if no listed leader permanently leaves office by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·