Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution depends on whether Delcy Rodríguez is the first among a set of listed individuals to permanently leave office before December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
Resolution depends on whether Delcy Rodríguez is the first among a set of listed individuals to permanently leave office before December 31, 2026. Merely announcing a resignation, losing an election before handover, facing temporary impeachment suspension, or staying on in an interim or caretaker capacity does not qualify. Instead, the individual must fully and permanently cease occupying the office. Outcome determination relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specific official gazette or designated authority, which introduces judgment if the exact timing or legal finality of a transition is contested.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Delcy Rodríguez will be the first listed individual to permanently leave their office before 2027. It features specific conditions disqualifying announcements, scheduled departures, temporary removals, and caretaker roles.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Delcy Rodríguez is the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying her listed office before the deadline. Mere announcements of departure, scheduled post-election departures, temporary removals (such as impeachment suspensions or provisional transfers of power), and remaining in a caretaker or interim capacity do not count as leaving office. The market resolves to another listed option if a different listed individual is the first to permanently leave office. The market resolves to 'None before 2027' if no listed individual meets the departure criteria by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·