Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the first listed leader to permanently vacate their office, but the text provided does not explicitly list the other competing leaders, making it essential to confirm the full candidate roster.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the first listed leader to permanently vacate their office, but the text provided does not explicitly list the other competing leaders, making it essential to confirm the full candidate roster. The rules establish clear negative criteria: announcements, scheduled departures, temporary suspensions, and serving in an ongoing caretaker or interim capacity do not count as vacating office. Because resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named governmental authority or gazette, the decider must exercise judgment regarding when a transition is fully permanent and whether news coverage forms an indisputable consensus.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ahmed al-Sharaa will be the first among a specified list of leaders to permanently leave office before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ahmed al-Sharaa is the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying his listed office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements of resignation or scheduled departures alone do not qualify, temporary removals or suspensions do not count, and serving in a caretaker or interim role means the individual has not ceased occupying the office. The market resolves to No if another listed leader leaves office first. The market resolves to "None before 2027" if no listed individual meets the criteria by the deadline. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·