Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly stated with unambiguous trigger conditions.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are clearly stated with unambiguous trigger conditions. Resolution relies on three specific, well-known news networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) unanimously calling the race for the candidate, with an explicit fallback to whoever is inaugurated on January 20, 2029 if a unanimous call does not occur before then. The rules provide deterministic outcomes without leaving room for decider interpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another person wins the election. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date, resolution is determined by who is inaugurated. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or the official inauguration outcome.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·