Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear, objective resolution criteria with minimal ambiguity.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear, objective resolution criteria with minimal ambiguity. Resolution requires consensus across three explicitly named media organizations (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC). If all three outlets do not call the race for the same candidate prior to January 20, 2029, the market relies on a definitive fallback of whoever is formally inaugurated. There is no decider discretion or hidden exception that would catch market participants off guard.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
6%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ron DeSantis will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ron DeSantis wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another person wins. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with the inauguration serving as the fallback.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·