Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined, requiring three named media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—to all call the race for the same candidate.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined, requiring three named media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—to all call the race for the same candidate. If a consensus call is not reached before January 20, 2029, a definitive fallback resolves the market based on who is inaugurated. There are no discretionary judgment calls or unexpected exceptions.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Greg Abbott will win the 2028 US presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Greg Abbott wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another person wins. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date, resolution is decided by who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with inauguration as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·