Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are straightforward and well-defined.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are straightforward and well-defined. The market relies on three specific major media organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) and clearly states that all three must project the same winner for early resolution. If there is any disagreement or lack of consensus among the named networks by January 20, 2029, a definitive fallback resolves the market based on who is officially inaugurated as president.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pete Hegseth will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The primary resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated as president.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or the official inauguration
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·