Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market has straightforward rules and clear criteria for resolution.
Read the full assessment
This market has straightforward rules and clear criteria for resolution. It explicitly names three major media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires all three to agree on the projected winner before resolving early. It also includes an unambiguous backstop: if the three networks do not reach a consensus call before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market resolves strictly according to who is officially inaugurated as president.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tom Cotton will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tom Cotton wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another person wins the election. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or the inauguration)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·