Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market has very straightforward resolution criteria.
Read the full assessment
This market has very straightforward resolution criteria. It relies directly on the official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee for the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize. It clearly handles joint winners by specifying that Julian Assange need only be among the named recipients, and it includes a clear long-stop date of March 31, 2028, resolving to No if no announcement is made by that time. There is minimal room for ambiguity or source discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▼ −0.25 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market explained
This market measures whether Julian Assange is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize. Joint awards qualify, so the market is not restricted to a sole winner.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Julian Assange is announced as a recipient of the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including as a joint winner. The market resolves to No if he is not awarded the prize, or if no official announcement regarding the 2027 prize is made by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The Norwegian Nobel Committee's first official announcement serves as the deciding source.
Resolution source
The Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·