Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market features clear and straightforward resolution mechanics.
Read the full assessment
This market features clear and straightforward resolution mechanics. Resolution relies entirely on the official announcement directly from the Norwegian Nobel Committee regarding the recipient of the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize. The rules explicitly handle joint awards by resolving to Yes if the named individual is among the co-recipients, and include a clear backstop date of March 31, 2028, resolving to No if no announcement occurs by that time.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize according to the Norwegian Nobel Committee, including as a joint recipient. The market resolves to No if she is not awarded the prize or if no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize is made by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Resolution source
The Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·