Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market features clear and unambiguous resolution mechanics.
Read the full assessment
This market features clear and unambiguous resolution mechanics. It relies directly on the official announcement from the designated primary authority, the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The rules explicitly handle joint awards by specifying that the named organization only needs to be among the winners for a positive resolution. Additionally, a clear fallback date and time are provided in the event that no announcement is made, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation or administrative discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
6%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market explained
This market measures whether the International Criminal Court is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, either individually or jointly.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the International Criminal Court is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including as a joint recipient. The market resolves to No if the International Criminal Court is not named among the recipients, or if no official announcement is made by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The Norwegian Nobel Committee decides the outcome through its first official announcement.
Resolution source
The first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·