Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market resolves using official Federal Reserve statements and published target rate changes.
Read the full assessment
The market resolves using official Federal Reserve statements and published target rate changes. The rules clearly define how rate cuts are counted in 25 basis point increments, note that larger cuts like 50 basis points count as multiple cuts, and include emergency actions through December 31, 2026. Participants should note two specific structural mechanics: cuts between 1 and 24 basis points are rounded up to count as a full cut, and the market features an early resolution clause that triggers a 'No' outcome as soon as the total number of cuts exceeds six.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will make exactly 6 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026. Rate cuts are calculated in increments of 25 bps, with larger cuts counting as multiple cuts and cuts between 1–24 bps counting as one cut.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly 6 cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, including actions during the December meeting and emergency rate cuts outside scheduled meetings. A cut of 50 bps counts as 2 cuts, and any cut between 1–24 bps counts as 1 cut. The market resolves to No if the exact count of cuts is not 6 by the end of 2026, or early to No if more than 6 cuts occur. Resolution is determined by official FOMC statements and the target federal funds rate data published on the Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·