Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define how rate cuts are tallied, specifying that each 25 basis point reduction counts as one cut, 50 basis points counts as two, and any cut between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define how rate cuts are tallied, specifying that each 25 basis point reduction counts as one cut, 50 basis points counts as two, and any cut between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one. Official Federal Reserve statements and publications serve as the authoritative resolution source. The market explicitly accounts for unscheduled emergency cuts by staying open through December 31, 2026, and includes an early resolution trigger resolving to No only if the number of realized cuts strictly exceeds nine before year-end.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly 9 rate cuts in 2026, calculated in 25-basis-point increments. It features an unusual resolution rule where rate cuts of 1–24 basis points are counted as a full cut, and 50-basis-point cuts count as 2 cuts.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve implements exactly 9 cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, including scheduled meetings and emergency actions. Larger reductions count as multiples of 25 basis points (for example, a 50 bps cut counts as 2 cuts), while reductions between 1 and 24 basis points also count as 1 cut. The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is anything other than 9. The market will resolve early to No if more than 9 cuts occur before the end of the year. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements and published target federal funds rate data from the official Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·