Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on official Federal Reserve statements and published target rate changes.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on official Federal Reserve statements and published target rate changes. However, there are two mechanics to note. First, rate cuts are measured in 25 basis point units (e.g., a 50 bps cut counts as two cuts, and cuts between 1 and 24 bps count as one cut), which departs from a simple count of meeting decisions. Second, the rules include standard early resolution boilerplate stating the market will resolve to 'No' if more cuts occur than the strike, a rule meant for exact-count markets that conflicts logically with an 'or more' question. In practice, the question asks for 12 or more cuts, but participants should be mindful of how fractional rate changes and early resolution rules are administered.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will make 12 or more rate cuts in 2026. Cuts are measured in 25-basis-point increments, and fractional cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fed cuts interest rates by a cumulative total equivalent to 12 or more cuts in 2026, including scheduled and emergency cuts. Cuts are measured in units of 25 basis points (for instance, a 50 bps cut counts as 2 cuts), and any cut between 1 and 24 bps counts as 1 cut. The market resolves to No if the total does not reach 12 cuts by the end of 2026. The market will resolve early to No if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible, defined in the rules as when more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Resolution is determined by official FOMC statements and published target federal funds rate data from the Federal Reserve.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·