Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules define the measurement time precisely as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, and provide a clear longstop date of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules define the measurement time precisely as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, and provide a clear longstop date of December 31, 2026. However, the price source is designated only as the most liquid price source available rather than a named exchange, aggregator, or price index, leaving discretion to the resolver in selecting the venue. Additionally, the rules do not specify how or from where the total token supply will be verified to calculate the fully diluted valuation, which creates potential uncertainty if multiple interpretations of maximum versus total supply exist at launch.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of MetaMask's token exceeds $4 billion exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MetaMask's token is greater than $4B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A token launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV does not exceed $4B at that time, or if MetaMask does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·