Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide precise and objective resolution criteria.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide precise and objective resolution criteria. The market resolves immediately to Yes if any 1-minute candle on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair registers a Low price at or below $45,000 between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET, resolving to No if that threshold is not reached by the deadline. The data source and chart settings are clearly specified, and prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are explicitly excluded, leaving no room for source discretion or interpretive disagreement.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance▲ +1.85 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin drops to $45,000 or lower by December 31, 2026. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle data from Binance's BTC/USDT pair, ignoring all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair has a final Low price equal to or lower than $45,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or falls below this price within the specified window. The deciding source is Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart data. Prices from other exchanges, other trading pairs, or spot markets do not count toward resolution.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·