Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines what qualifies as leaving office, explicitly excluding mere announcements, pending departures after an election, temporary suspensions like impeachment procedures or 25th Amendment invocations, and continuing in a caretaker or interim capacity.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly defines what qualifies as leaving office, explicitly excluding mere announcements, pending departures after an election, temporary suspensions like impeachment procedures or 25th Amendment invocations, and continuing in a caretaker or interim capacity. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official state or federal registry, giving the decider latitude to determine when a departure becomes permanent. If no listed individual leaves their position permanently by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to a negative outcome.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gavin Newsom will be the first among a set of listed leaders to permanently leave office before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying their listed office. Announcements of resignation or scheduled departures from election outcomes do not count alone. Temporary removals such as impeachment suspensions or provisional transfers of power do not count. Individuals who continue in a caretaker or interim role are not considered to have left office. The market resolves to None before 2027 if no listed leader permanently leaves office by the deadline. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·