Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market turns on whether the named figure is the very first among the tracked group of leaders to permanently vacate office before the December 31, 2026 cutoff.
Read the full assessment
This market turns on whether the named figure is the very first among the tracked group of leaders to permanently vacate office before the December 31, 2026 cutoff. The rules set specific operational boundaries: resignation announcements, pending election exits, caretaker roles, and temporary suspensions like impeachments do not qualify as leaving office. There is no single designated government registry or official source named, meaning resolution relies on assessing a consensus among credible media reports. Anyone following this market should also be aware that if any other listed leader exits permanently before this individual does, or if none depart by the deadline, the outcome will resolve negatively.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the first among a listed group of leaders to permanently leave his office before 2027. It requires an actual, permanent departure rather than a planned departure, announcement, or temporary transfer of power.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the first individual among the listed leaders to cease occupying his office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only permanent removal qualifies; announcements of resignation, scheduled departures, temporary removals such as impeachment suspensions, and continuing in a caretaker or interim role do not count. The market resolves No if another listed leader is the first to permanently leave office, or if no listed leader permanently leaves office by the deadline, in which case it resolves to 'None before 2027'. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·