Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated official government gazette or decree, granting the decider discretion to evaluate news coverage.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated official government gazette or decree, granting the decider discretion to evaluate news coverage. However, the operational rules provide clear guidelines distinguishing official departure from mere announcements, scheduled exits, caretaker periods, or temporary suspensions like impeachment. Holders should note that an official remaining in an interim or caretaker capacity will not trigger resolution until their tenure fully concludes.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market tracks whether Sébastien Lecornu is the first among a listed group of leaders to permanently leave office before 2027. It requires an actual departure rather than merely an announcement, scheduled exit, or temporary suspension.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Sébastien Lecornu if he is the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying his office. Announcements of resignation, scheduled departures due to election outcomes, and temporary removals such as impeachment suspensions or provisional transfers of power do not qualify. Continuing in a caretaker or interim role also does not count as leaving office. The market resolves to None before 2027 if no listed leader meets the criteria by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·