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GeopoliticsCloses · in 48 days$394.8K volumePart of: Next leader out of power before 2027? →

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: Resolution relies on an informal consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official gazette or government transition record.

Read the full assessment

Resolution relies on an informal consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official gazette or government transition record. The rules carefully specify edge cases, noting that resignation announcements, scheduled departures after elections, temporary suspensions, and ongoing caretaker or interim service do not qualify as leaving office until the permanent transfer of power takes full effect. An outcome depends on whether any listed leader permanently vacates their post prior to the December 31, 2026 cutoff.

Resolver
High
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

49%

chance

▼ −1 pts · 24h

Yes49¢
No51¢
None before 2027 · Yes · 1MO 44.5 H 70.0 L 34.5 C 49.0+4.5 (+10.1%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −11 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 17:40 UTC

The market fell from 55% to 44% alongside correlated repricing in related leader markets, including a downward move in the Netanyahu outcome.

  • Largest hourly change: 19:00 UTC, 64% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 52 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: Netanyahu - Israel PM (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 17:50 UTC

Earlier

▲ +14 pts · 9 Nov 2026, 16:55 UTCThe market rose from 41% to 54% alongside repricing in related outcomes for the event, with the outcome for Spanish PM Sánchez moving down at the same time.News check pending.AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 17:05 UTC

Earlier

▲ +10 pts · 9 Nov 2026, 14:25 UTCThe price rose from 44% to 54%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.News check pending.AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 14:35 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market explained

This market measures whether none of the specified leaders permanently leave their listed offices before 2027.

How it resolves

The market resolves according to the first listed individual to cease occupying their office. It resolves to 'None before 2027' if no listed individual meets the departure criteria by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only permanent removal qualifies; announcements of resignation, scheduled departures, temporary removals (such as impeachment suspensions or provisional transfers of power), and continuing in a caretaker or interim role do not count as leaving office. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·