Geopolitics markets
313 live markets · prices from Polymarket · Gotcha risk and tradability on every market card
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
5%chance7 days▲ +2 ptsYes5¢No95¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
9%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes9¢No91¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsWordingWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsFrance accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
3%chanceSince Nov 8▼ −1 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingUS charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsWill no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?
35%chance7 days▲ +5 ptsYes35¢No66¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsUS x China Military clash before 2027?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?
35%chance7 days▼ −4 ptsYes35¢No66¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptions▲ +2 pts · 24hChina coup attempt before 2027?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsSaudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?
24%chance7 days▲ +2 ptsYes24¢No76¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptions▼ −1 pts · 24hWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedWordingExceptionsWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
7%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes7¢No93¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingIran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
8%chance7 days▲ +2 ptsYes8¢No92¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsTusk out by December 31?
3%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedExceptionsResolverWordingAny country withdraws from EU before 2027?
1%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedExceptionsResolverIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?
3%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsNATO article 5 before 2027?
2%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsIsrael and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No99¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverTrump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
5%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes5¢No95¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?
35%chance7 days▲ +9 ptsYes35¢No65¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsUkraine joins NATO before 2027?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedRussia coup attempt in 2026?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsEdi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
9%chanceSince Nov 9▼ −2 ptsYes9¢No91¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedExceptionsResolverWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
2%chanceSince Nov 7↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsIran nuclear test before 2027?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverEritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?
13%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes13¢No88¢Gotcha medium · 4 of 4 flaggedResolverTimingWordingExceptionsXi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?
99%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes99¢No1¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Iran legalize gay marriage?
<1%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes<1¢No>99¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverMeloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?
3%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsDelcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
5%chanceSince Nov 11▲ +1 ptsYes5¢No95¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsCuban regime falls in 2026?
3%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingTrump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?
5%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes5¢No96¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
<1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes<1¢No>99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?
19%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes19¢No81¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsWill NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsUkraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2027?
28%chanceSince Nov 11↔ ±0 ptsYes28¢No72¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingUAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverZhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
7%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes7¢No94¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Venezuela become 51st state?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedExceptionsResolverWordingNATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
3%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingEU dissolves before 2027?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptions