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Geopolitics markets
313 live markets · prices from Polymarket · Gotcha risk and tradability on every market card
Modi out by June 30, 2027?
11%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes11¢No90¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedWordingExceptionsMacron out by December 31, 2026?
<1%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes<1¢No>99¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverUS x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
4%chance7 days▲ +2 ptsYes4¢No96¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
3%chanceSince Nov 7↔ ±0 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Alberta join the US?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverUS military draft authorized in 2026?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsUAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
3%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverTrump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverIran invades Kuwait by December 31?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 4 of 4 flaggedResolverTimingWordingExceptionsIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverYoon out of custody before 2027?
3%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes3¢No98¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2026?
3%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverPutin and Zelenskyy shake hands by December 31?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
3%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No99¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by November 30, 2026?
1%chance7 days▼ −3 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingGotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
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Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
+8 more outcomes Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
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- Dilution of Iran's Uranium10%≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)8%1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium8%Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)8%Iran Reconstruction Funding7%+1 more outcomes
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- None before 202749%Netanyahu - Israel PM39%Sánchez - Spanish PM3%Abbas - President of Palestine3%Lecornu - France PM1%+16 more outcomes
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Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
+5 more outcomes Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
+8 more outcomes Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.