Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Politics markets
461 live markets · prices from Polymarket · Gotcha risk and tradability on every market card
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?
3%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
69%chance7 days▲ +1 ptsYes69¢No31¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverSanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?
1%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsAndy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Trump resign before 2027?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedExceptionsResolverWordingWill Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?
95%chanceSince Nov 10▲ +1 ptsYes95¢No6¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
30%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes30¢No71¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill Vox win the third-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
97%chanceSince Nov 9▲ +2 ptsYes97¢No3¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedExceptionsWill the Republicans win Georgia in the 2028 Presidential Election?
36%chance7 days▲ +13 ptsYes36¢No64¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill the Republicans win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election?
10%chance7 days▼ −4 ptsYes10¢No90¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
3%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
1%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingNATO dissolves before 2027?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha low · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsWill Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedExceptionsResolverLee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
3%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?
2%chanceSince Nov 10↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverJosé Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
3%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha low · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsWill Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
11%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes11¢No90¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedTodd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?
8%chance7 days▲ +4 ptsYes8¢No92¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverAndrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?
4%chance7 days▼ −3 ptsYes4¢No96¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverTrump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
1%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedZohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?
3%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Danae Figueroa win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
<1%chanceSince Nov 11↔ ±0 ptsYes<1¢No>99¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?
86%chanceSince Nov 11↔ ±0 ptsYes86¢No14¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
4%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes4¢No96¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Chung Tung-chin win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election?
95%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes95¢No6¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill Ahmed Galadima win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?
48%chance7 days▲ +4 ptsYes48¢No53¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Garba Yakubu Lado win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election?
11%chanceSince Nov 11↔ ±0 ptsYes11¢No89¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverGotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
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