Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Politics markets
342 live markets · prices from Polymarket · Gotcha risk and tradability on every market card
Live Politics markets342of Polymarket's most active
Moved ≥ 5 pts, 24h43▲ 21 up · ▼ 22 down
Most traded, 24h · among the markets below
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028$2M
- Presidential Election Winner 2028$1.1M
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028$1.1M
Biggest moves, 24h
- Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?▼ −21 pts → 28%
- Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?▲ +17 pts → 47%
- Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?▼ −17 pts → 33%
- Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?▼ −12 pts → 84%
- Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?▲ +12 pts → 38%
Trump out as President before 2027?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
40%chanceSince Nov 11▼ −2 ptsYes40¢No60¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill the next Israeli government hold fewer than 58 seats?
64%chance7 days▲ +16 ptsYes64¢No37¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedExceptions▼ −7 pts · 24hWill Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
39%chance7 days▼ −14 ptsYes39¢No62¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolver▼ −6 pts · 24hSpain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?
91%chanceSince Nov 8▼ −1 ptsYes91¢No9¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Marco Rubio announce a presidential run by June 30, 2027?
31%chanceSince Nov 7▼ −6 ptsYes31¢No69¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingNext Israeli government a minority government?
55%chanceSince Nov 8▲ +16 ptsYes55¢No45¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill the Democrats win Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election?
36%chance7 days▲ +4 ptsYes36¢No65¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Tamaulipas Congress election?
11%chanceSince Nov 7↔ ±0 ptsYes11¢No90¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?
12%chanceSince Nov 7▲ +1 ptsYes12¢No89¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?
69%chance7 days▲ +1 ptsYes69¢No31¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill anyone win France’s presidential election in the first round?
5%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes5¢No95¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?
70%chance7 days▲ +1 ptsYes70¢No30¢Gotcha low · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsIsraeli Knesset election annulled?
1%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverTimingExceptionsGreenland snap election called by December 31?
6%chance7 days▲ +2 ptsYes6¢No94¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Chen Ying win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?
12%chanceSince Nov 8▼ −3 ptsYes12¢No88¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedBrazil presidential election annulled by December 31?
2%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes2¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverTimingExceptionsWill the Democrats win New Jersey in the 2028 Presidential Election?
88%chance7 days▲ +2 ptsYes88¢No13¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Puebla Congress election?
93%chance7 days▲ +1 ptsYes93¢No7¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedExceptionsWill Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
69%chance7 days▲ +1 ptsYes69¢No31¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?
95%chanceSince Nov 10▲ +1 ptsYes95¢No6¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
30%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes30¢No71¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill Vox win the third-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
97%chanceSince Nov 9▲ +2 ptsYes97¢No3¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedExceptionsWill the Republicans win Georgia in the 2028 Presidential Election?
36%chance7 days▲ +13 ptsYes36¢No64¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill the Republicans win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election?
10%chance7 days▼ −4 ptsYes10¢No90¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedZohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?
3%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Danae Figueroa win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
<1%chanceSince Nov 11↔ ±0 ptsYes<1¢No>99¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?
86%chanceSince Nov 11↔ ±0 ptsYes86¢No14¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
4%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes4¢No96¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Chung Tung-chin win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election?
95%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes95¢No6¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill Ahmed Galadima win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?
48%chance7 days▲ +4 ptsYes48¢No53¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Garba Yakubu Lado win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election?
11%chanceSince Nov 11↔ ±0 ptsYes11¢No89¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverGotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
+33 more outcomes Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
+12 more outcomes Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
+29 more outcomes Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
+37 more outcomes Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
+11 more outcomes Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
+8 more outcomes Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.
Gotcha risk and tradability for each outcome are on the event page.